A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
